The hurricane cone cannot tell you whether your home will experience damaging wind, flooding or storm surge. It shows where a storm’s center may travel. For a useful South Florida risk check, residents need three National Hurricane Center graphics: the operational cone, the Earliest Reasonable Arrival Time map and the Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map.
By SoFlo Times Staff
Updated August 20, 2026
What Changed on the Operational Hurricane Cone in 2026
The operational 2026 cone now displays land-based tropical-storm and hurricane watches and warnings for inland as well as coastal areas. The National Hurricane Center tested that approach during the 2024 and 2025 seasons before making it operational this year.
For South Florida, that means the same graphic can show wind alerts extending inland across Miami-Dade, Broward or Palm Beach County—not merely along the Atlantic shoreline. It also uses one style of shading across the full five-day cone and includes pink-and-blue hatching where a hurricane watch and tropical storm warning overlap. The changes are detailed in the NHC’s 2026 products and services update.
Do not confuse that operational graphic with the separate experimental 2026 cone. The operational cone is built from circles encompassing 67 percent, or two-thirds, of absolute track errors during 2021–2025. The experimental version uses ellipses based on the 90th percentile of along-track and cross-track errors, accounting separately for errors in the storm’s speed and direction.
NHC is publishing both versions during the 2026 season and accepting feedback on the experimental ellipse-based cone through November 30. For household decisions, start with the operational cone and its official watches and warnings.
Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach County residents should read the 2026 operational cone as a forecast of the storm’s center, not a boundary of danger. The National Hurricane Center says its circles capture two-thirds of five years of historical track errors, while 39-mph tropical-storm-force winds can extend beyond the white cone. Source: NHC, accessed August 20, 2026.
Graphic 1: Read the Cone for the Storm Center and Wind Alerts
Begin at hurricanes.gov and open the operational cone for the active storm.
First, find the current center and the forecast points. The widening white area represents growing track uncertainty around the center. A home outside that area is not necessarily outside the storm’s wind field.
Next, read the watch-and-warning colors covering your part of South Florida. The 2026 operational graphic may show inland alerts over places such as Kendall, Pembroke Pines or Wellington even when the center line remains offshore.
Finally, stop treating the center line as a predicted route over a particular street. A track drawn near Biscayne Boulevard, Interstate 95 or the Florida Turnpike is not a street-level forecast. NHC’s 2026 Atlantic cone is 39 nautical miles wide at the 24-hour forecast point, 62 nautical miles at 48 hours and 200 nautical miles at five days.
The cone answers: Where might the center go, and which areas are under official wind alerts? It does not answer when outdoor work becomes unsafe or how high storm surge could rise.
Graphic 2: Use the Earliest Reasonable Wind-Arrival Map as Your Preparation Deadline
Open the storm’s Earliest Reasonable Arrival Time of Tropical-Storm-Force Winds graphic. Locate the time band covering your community, then work backward.
That mapped time is a conservative deadline for bringing in balcony furniture, removing loose yard items, securing a boat and finishing shutter work. Tropical-storm-force wind means sustained wind of at least 34 knots, or 39 mph—not a single 39-mph gust.
The map does not say those winds will begin at the displayed time. It says there is no more than a 10 percent chance they will begin before that time. NHC calls the earliest-arrival version its primary preparation graphic. The separate “Most Likely Arrival Time” accepts more timing risk and should not be used as the deadline for exposed outdoor work.
For example, if the earliest-arrival band reaches Fort Lauderdale at 8 p.m. Tuesday, the practical reading is “finish outside before 8 p.m. Tuesday,” not “wait until Tuesday evening to begin.”
For households from Homestead through Fort Lauderdale to Boca Raton, the National Hurricane Center’s Earliest Reasonable Arrival Time is the conservative outdoor-preparation deadline. Before the mapped time, the chance of sustained 39-mph tropical-storm-force winds beginning is no more than 10 percent. Source: NHC Arrival of Tropical-Storm-Force Winds Graphics, accessed August 20, 2026.
Graphic 3: Check the Storm-Surge Flooding Map for Coastal Inundation
When NHC activates its interactive Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map, zoom to your neighborhood and compare the colored inundation layer with recognizable roads and waterways.
This is the graphic to check for addresses around Biscayne Bay, the Rickenbacker Causeway, Old Cutler Road, Hollywood Beach, Port Everglades, Fort Lauderdale’s Las Olas Isles, Palm Beach island and the Lake Worth Lagoon. Do not assume a property is safe because it sits west of A1A or US-1; use the mapped address and the county’s evacuation-zone lookup.
The colors show possible water height above ground at a location. They represent levels with a 10 percent chance of being exceeded—a reasonable worst-case planning scenario rather than a precise prediction.
The map includes astronomical tides but excludes wave action, rainfall flooding, river discharge and flooding caused by levee failure. Its road layer provides geographic reference; it does not predict which individual roads will remain passable.
Residents near Biscayne Bay, Hollywood Beach and the Lake Worth Lagoon should use the Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map—not the cone—to check possible inundation above ground. Its shading shows water levels with a 10 percent chance of being exceeded at a location. Source: NHC Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map, accessed August 20, 2026.
A Three-Minute Check for Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach County Residents
Use this sequence every time a new full advisory materially changes the local forecast:
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Minute one: Operational cone. Find the center forecast and determine whether your area has a tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning. Look beyond the cone boundary for wind risk.
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Minute two: Earliest wind arrival. Record the earliest reasonable time for your community. Make that the deadline for shutters, patio furniture, trash cans, construction materials and other outdoor work.
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Minute three: Storm surge and evacuation zone. Check the NHC inundation map, then confirm your address through the appropriate county tool. Miami-Dade’s Emergency Information Lookup returns the storm-surge planning zone, evacuation centers and bus pickup locations when activated. Broward publishes its evacuation information and map, while Palm Beach County directs residents to its hurricane information center.
This sequence separates three questions people often collapse into one: where the center may go, when sustained wind could begin and where saltwater inundation could occur.
When NHC Graphics Update—and Which Local Alerts Take Priority
Atlantic tropical-cyclone graphics normally update with full advisory packages every six hours, at 5 a.m., 11 a.m., 5 p.m. and 11 p.m. EDT. NHC can issue special advisories and graphics at other times when conditions or warnings change significantly.
Do not wait for the next scheduled cone if Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach County or your municipality issues an evacuation or other protective-action notice. County instructions apply local knowledge about evacuation zones, shelters, bridges and transportation that the cone does not provide.
Also monitor the National Weather Service Miami office for South Florida watches, warnings and Hurricane Local Statements. Miami-Dade residents can register for free county emergency alerts covering hurricane warnings and protective actions.
Use NHC graphics to understand the hazards. Use local emergency alerts to decide what action is required at your address.
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