South Florida’s real estate market enters 2026 as a tale of two trajectories. While much of Florida experiences price corrections and cooling demand, the tri-county region of Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach continues to demonstrate remarkable resilience. This comprehensive market analysis examines the current state of South Florida real estate, identifies the hottest neighborhoods for investment, and provides data-driven insights for buyers, sellers, and investors navigating the region’s dynamic property landscape.
Executive Summary: The State of South Florida Real Estate
The South Florida housing market stands apart from broader state trends as we move through Q1 2026. According to Realtor.com’s latest housing forecast, home prices in the Miami–Fort Lauderdale–West Palm Beach metro area are projected to rise approximately 1.1% year over year—making it the only major Florida metro expected to post positive price growth in 2026.
This performance contrasts sharply with other Florida markets:
- Tampa–St. Petersburg–Clearwater: -3.6% projected
- Orlando–Kissimmee–Sanford: -1.6% projected
- Jacksonville: -1.4% projected
- Cape Coral–Fort Myers: -4.2% projected
The median Florida home price reached $415,000 in December 2025, representing a $5,000 increase from November. Inventory levels fell to a 4.6-month supply, the lowest level in over a year, signaling tightening conditions that favor sellers in certain segments.
Residential Market Deep Dive
Single-Family Home Performance
Single-family homes continue to be the strongest segment of South Florida’s residential market. MIAMI Realtors® projects single-family home prices will continue to appreciate at rates below 5%, with inventory hovering around 6 months of supply—the threshold between a buyer’s and seller’s market.
Key Single-Family Statistics:
- Year-over-year price decline: approximately 3.6% (moderating)
- Price-per-square-foot decline: approximately 2.5%
- Days on market: increasing but still below national averages
- High-income buyers driving growth in the $1M+ segment
The limited land availability across South Florida’s three counties continues to support detached home values. Unlike markets in Central and North Florida where new construction has flooded supply, South Florida’s geographic constraints—bounded by the Everglades to the west and the Atlantic to the east—create natural scarcity that buffers against sharp corrections.
The Condo Market Challenge
Condominiums remain the weakest segment of the South Florida market, facing unique pressures that extend beyond typical market dynamics.
Condo Market Statistics:
- Median condo prices: down 10.8% year over year
- Price per square foot: down approximately 9.3% over two years
- Inventory levels: elevated, particularly in high-rise developments
- Average time on market: significantly longer than single-family homes
Several factors are driving condo market softness:
Post-Surfside Regulations: Following the 2021 Champlain Towers South collapse, Florida enacted stricter building inspection and reserve requirements. Buildings over 30 years old must undergo milestone inspections, and associations must maintain adequate reserves. Many condo associations have passed special assessments ranging from $50,000 to over $200,000 per unit, dramatically affecting resale values.
Insurance Crisis: Condo insurance premiums have increased 40-100% over the past three years. Some buildings have seen master policy premiums exceed $1 million annually, costs that flow directly to unit owners through increased HOA fees.
HOA Fee Escalation: Combined with insurance and reserve funding requirements, monthly HOA fees for many condos have doubled. Units that once carried $500 monthly fees now see charges of $1,000-$1,500, pricing out many potential buyers.
Affordability Metrics
While prices have moderated in certain segments, affordability remains challenging when measured against household income growth:
- Condo price per square foot: Up approximately 26% over five years
- Single-family price per square foot: Up approximately 34% over five years
- Median household income growth: Approximately 27% over the same period
This data suggests condos have become slightly more affordable relative to incomes compared to pre-pandemic levels, while single-family homes continue to strain many buyers’ budgets.
County-by-County Analysis
Miami-Dade County
Miami-Dade remains the epicenter of South Florida real estate activity, driven by international capital flows, corporate relocations, and cultural cachet.
Market Highlights:
- Median Single-Family Price: $630,000
- Median Condo Price: $415,000
- Inventory: 5.2 months (single-family), 8.4 months (condo)
- Price Appreciation (12-month): +2.1% (single-family), -8.3% (condo)
Hottest Neighborhoods:
- Coral Gables: Consistent demand from affluent buyers; walkable downtown and top schools drive premium pricing
- Coconut Grove: Waterfront properties commanding $2,500+ per square foot
- Brickell: Luxury high-rise market stabilizing after oversupply concerns
- Edgewater: Emerging as alternative to Brickell with lower price points
- Wynwood: Arts district transformation continuing; mixed-use developments attracting young professionals
Emerging Value Plays:
- Little River/Little Haiti: Gentrification creating opportunities; prices 40% below Wynwood
- West Kendall: Suburban demand from families priced out of eastern neighborhoods
- Doral: Corporate presence from Latin American companies supports steady demand
Broward County (Fort Lauderdale Metro)
Broward County offers a middle ground between Miami-Dade’s intensity and Palm Beach’s exclusivity, attracting buyers seeking relative value.
Market Highlights:
- Median Single-Family Price: $565,000
- Median Condo Price: $295,000
- Inventory: 5.8 months (single-family), 9.1 months (condo)
- Price Appreciation (12-month): +1.8% (single-family), -11.2% (condo)
Hottest Neighborhoods:
- Fort Lauderdale Beach: Oceanfront condos showing resilience; single-family on barrier islands at premium
- Las Olas Isles: Waterfront homes with yacht access; steady demand from boating community
- Victoria Park: Walkable urban neighborhood gaining popularity with young professionals
- Wilton Manors: Established community with stable pricing
- Hollywood Beach: Beachfront locations attracting buyers priced out of Fort Lauderdale
Value Opportunities:
- Pompano Beach: Redevelopment bringing new energy; prices 30% below Fort Lauderdale Beach
- Davie: Larger lots and semi-rural feel at suburban prices
- Plantation: Strong schools driving family demand
Palm Beach County
Palm Beach County continues to attract wealthy buyers and has seen stronger price appreciation than its southern neighbors.
Market Highlights:
- Median Single-Family Price: $595,000
- Median Condo Price: $340,000
- Inventory: 4.9 months (single-family), 7.2 months (condo)
- Price Appreciation (12-month): +7% (single-family), -5.1% (condo)
Palm Beach leads South Florida with 7% price growth, though the luxury segment (properties over $1 million) takes an average of 14 months to sell, indicating a more deliberate pace at the high end.
Hottest Neighborhoods:
- Palm Beach Island: Ultra-luxury enclave; $2,000+ per square foot standard
- West Palm Beach Downtown: Urban renaissance continuing; walkability driving demand
- Jupiter: Family-friendly coastal community; excellent schools
- Delray Beach: Atlantic Avenue district attracting younger buyers
- Boca Raton: Established luxury market with strong fundamentals
Value Opportunities:
- Lake Worth Beach: Artsy community at fraction of Delray prices
- Wellington: Equestrian lifestyle at accessible price points
- Royal Palm Beach: Suburban value with good schools
Commercial Real Estate Trends
Office Market
South Florida’s office market continues to benefit from corporate relocations, though absorption has slowed from 2021-2022 peaks.
Key Metrics:
- Class A Vacancy Rate: 12.4% (down from 14.1% in 2024)
- Average Asking Rent: $58 per square foot (Miami CBD), $42 per square foot (suburban)
- Net Absorption: Positive but moderating
Notable Trends:
- Financial services firms continue consolidating operations in Miami
- Hedge funds and family offices expanding in Palm Beach
- Tech companies favoring Wynwood and Miami Design District
- Hybrid work reducing per-employee space requirements
Retail Market
Retail real estate is bifurcated between struggling centers and thriving experiential destinations.
Winners:
- High-street retail in Bal Harbour, Design District, Lincoln Road
- Grocery-anchored neighborhood centers
- Lifestyle centers with dining and entertainment
Challenged Segments:
- Older strip centers without anchor tenants
- Enclosed malls (except luxury tier)
- Big-box locations in secondary trade areas
Industrial and Logistics
Industrial remains the strongest commercial sector, driven by e-commerce demand and South Florida’s role as a Latin American trade gateway.
Key Metrics:
- Vacancy Rate: 3.8% (historically low)
- Average Asking Rent: $16.50 per square foot (triple net)
- New Construction: 4.2 million square feet underway
Port of Miami and Port Everglades activity supports warehouse and distribution facility demand, while last-mile delivery requirements drive demand for infill industrial sites.
Multifamily Investment
The apartment investment market shows signs of stabilization after aggressive rent growth from 2020-2023.
Key Metrics:
- Average Rent: $2,450 (one-bedroom), $3,100 (two-bedroom)
- Vacancy Rate: 6.2% (up from 4.1% in 2023)
- Cap Rates: 5.0-5.5% (Class A), 5.5-6.5% (Class B)
- Rent Growth: 1.2% year over year (down from 8%+ in 2022)
New construction deliveries are pressuring rents in certain submarkets, particularly Brickell, Edgewater, and Downtown Fort Lauderdale, where thousands of units have come online.
Market Drivers and Economic Indicators
Migration Patterns
While the pandemic-era migration surge has moderated, South Florida continues to attract domestic relocations, particularly from:
- New York/New Jersey: Tax refugees and remote workers
- California: Tech workers and entrepreneurs
- Chicago/Illinois: Midwest residents seeking warmer climate
International buyers remain active, with particular strength from:
- Latin America: Colombia, Argentina, Venezuela, Brazil
- Canada: Seasonal residents and investors
- Europe: UK, France, Germany (capitalizing on currency positions)
Economic Diversification
South Florida’s economy has diversified significantly beyond tourism and real estate:
- Financial Services: Growing hedge fund and private equity presence
- Technology: Emerging startup ecosystem, particularly fintech and crypto
- Healthcare: Expansion of major hospital systems
- Aviation/Aerospace: MRO facilities and airline operations
- Film/Entertainment: Increasing production activity
This diversification provides more stable housing demand compared to single-industry markets.
Interest Rate Environment
Mortgage rates remain a key factor affecting market activity. After peaking above 7.5% in late 2023, rates have moderated to the mid-6% range entering 2026. Each quarter-point reduction expands the pool of qualified buyers, supporting transaction volume.
Investment Outlook and Recommendations
For Buyers
Best Opportunities:
- Condos in well-capitalized buildings: Look for associations with completed reserve studies and no pending special assessments
- Single-family homes under $600,000: Competition has eased in this range
- Value neighborhoods: Little River, Pompano Beach, Lake Worth offer growth potential
Proceed with Caution:
- Older condos without reserve studies: Risk of substantial special assessments
- Ultra-luxury segment: Longer marketing times and potential for negotiation
- New construction condos: Consider developer incentives as signals
For Sellers
Strategy Recommendations:
- Price realistically: Days on market have increased; overpriced listings languish
- Invest in presentation: Staging and photography more important in competitive market
- Consider timing: Spring market (February-May) historically strongest
- Be prepared for inspection negotiations: Buyers more demanding in current environment
For Investors
Opportunities:
- Value-add multifamily in secondary locations: Rent growth potential with operational improvements
- Industrial properties: Continued strong fundamentals
- Mixed-use developments in emerging neighborhoods: Long-term appreciation potential
Risks to Monitor:
- Insurance costs: Continuing upward pressure on expenses
- Property tax increases: Reassessments affecting returns
- Climate-related concerns: Flood insurance and resilience requirements
Looking Ahead: Q2 2026 and Beyond
Several factors will shape South Florida real estate through the remainder of 2026:
Potential Catalysts:
- Governor DeSantis’s property tax elimination proposal on November 2026 ballot could boost values 7-9% if passed
- Interest rate reductions would immediately expand buyer pool
- Continued corporate relocations support high-end segment
Headwinds:
- Insurance market remains challenging
- Condo regulatory compliance costs ongoing
- Elevated inventory in certain segments
Bottom Line: South Florida’s real estate market demonstrates fundamental resilience that separates it from broader Florida trends. Limited land, sustained domestic and international demand, and economic diversification support the thesis that home prices in South Florida will maintain relative strength even as other markets correct. Buyers should focus on quality properties in established neighborhoods, while sellers must adjust expectations to reflect the normalized—rather than frenzied—market conditions of 2026.
The data suggests South Florida real estate remains a sound long-term investment for those who buy wisely, maintain realistic expectations, and understand the unique dynamics of this tri-county market. As always, working with experienced local professionals—agents, attorneys, and inspectors who understand the nuances of South Florida transactions—remains essential to successful outcomes.
This market analysis is based on data available through January 2026 from sources including Miami Realtors®, Realtor.com, Redfin, and local market reports. Real estate markets change rapidly; consult with local professionals for the most current information before making investment decisions.